- Swing-state odds in Michigan and Wisconsin don’t look good for Trump this election, as they shifted again over the weekend toward Biden. He is now a -400 favorite in Michigan and Wisconsin (up from -305 and -335, respectively). Those odds match Boden’s odds in Minnesota and are better than Trump’s odds in Texas.
- Las Vegas odds change quickly and VSiN, The Sports Betting Network, keeps you up-to-date with the latest lines and changes. Use the links above to find the NFL odds as well as the latest odds and betting lines for every sport. The Las Vegas odds set the market for sports betting across the world.
President Trump's longshot chances of overturning President-elect Joe Biden's win just became pretty much impossible.Even before Biden was projected to win the 2020 election, Trump and his supporters launched a bevvy of lawsuits aimed at disqualifying ballots in states Biden narrowly picked up. Those suits have slowly been dropped or dismissed, and on Monday, a slew of swing-state drops have.
With at least 94 million early votes cast by the eve of US election day, Americans are engaged in a highly contested election for the president, one third of the Senate, and all of the House of Representatives.
The outbreak and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally disrupted the US economy, society, and political landscape, as well as increased many risks around the conduct of a genuine and transparent election.
The economy has seen large fluctuations in quarterly growth rates, a fall in family income, and a rise in unemployment, while at the same time a buoyant stock market, despite a rocky ride in the week before the election, provides hope for recovery. The campaigns have spent more than US$1 billion to reach voters in battleground states. Analysis of the “poll of polls” shows Democratic candidate Joe Biden with more than a 8-point lead over Republican president, Donald Trump.
But despite the abnormalities of the 2020 election cycle, as in many previous races, the result will hang on what happens in a select bunch of key swing states.
Swing machine
Crucial to understanding the conversion of votes to success in any US presidential election is the electoral college. In its first past the post system to collate proportionate electoral votes by state, each candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. The electoral college was crucial in Trump’s 2016 victory. He lost the popular vote by just under 3 million votes, but won the presidency with 306 electoral college votes to the 232 for Hillary Clinton.
Read more: As the world watches US election, the appeal of America is diminished
The Trump victory in 2016 came late on election day and rested on securing the electoral votes from swing states, which have high voter volatility and demographic diversity, often making them too close to call. While different states come into play in different election cycles, swing states for the 2020 election include Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin.
Four years ago, Trump held rallies across these states and carried all but one of them (Minnesota). The electoral landscape in 2020 looks different, with three “toss-up” states (Florida, Georgia, and Texas), six Biden-leaning states (Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), and two Trump-leaning states (Iowa and Ohio).
Swing state dominance, coupled with the control of safer states, put the electoral odds in Biden’s favour. Early voting, mail-in voting, and different costs of voting that can affect turnout – including registration, poll opening times and how accessible polling is – means there is still much to be revealed on election day. Here are six states worth keeping an eye on.
Six states to watch
Pennsylvania
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, where I was born, voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but now shows a strong preference for Trump along with other rural and working class areas in the state, while cities such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are polling well for the Democrats. It was also a state where exit polls showed Trump had support from 50% of white women in 2016.
Pennsylvania has 20 electoral college votes, which Trump won in 2016 with a 0.78% margin. For 2020, Biden carries a lead in the polls and has gained ground over the course of the campaign, a surprising struggle given he comes from Scranton, a city in the northeast with over 75,000 people, and from a state that voted for the Democrats between 1992 and 2016. Attempts to get the Supreme Court to rule out the planned extension of a mail-in ballot deadline until November 6, if the vote was postmarked by election day, have been rejected for reasons of time.
Arizona
Arizona is a sunbelt and border state, which has voted Republican since 1957, except when Bill Clinton won it in 1996. Large demographic shifts and migration of people from California, as well as the presence of the oft-attacked McCain dynasty have changed the political complexion of the state.
Biden heads into November 3 with a lead in the polls in Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes. Meanwhile, the “independent” Democratic candidate Mark Kelly is leading in his Senate race against incumbent Republican Martha McSally.
Texas
In Texas, Biden is neck and neck with Trump in a traditionally Republican state that shares a long border with Mexico – a focal point for Trump’s promise to build a wall – and a strong cohort of Latino Republican voters. With 38 electoral college votes at stake, the state has been a reliable stronghold for Trump, who will likely win by a whisker.
Florida
With 29 electoral college votes up for grabs, the race in the Sunshine State is very tight. Florida was a site of Democratic success in the 2018 midterms, but is also led by a Republican governor. The state is notorious for the “hanging chad” ballot problem central to the contested 2000 Bush-Gore election which resulted in the US Supreme Court deciding the election. This foreshadows ongoing debates over how people actually vote.
Trump has made the state his home, and enjoys support among Cuban and Venezuelan Americans there. Both campaigns have sought to woo voters with Trump rallies, Biden events, and a visit from Barack Obama in Miami and Orlando. St. Petersburg and Tampa have voted Democrat in past elections, and a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll puts both candidates in a statistical dead heat.
Georgia
One of the original colonies, part of the “old south”, Georgia has participated in all elections since the founding (with the exception of 1864 during its secession). It was a Democratic stronghold until 1972, when it flipped Republican. Biden has a slight lead, but like Florida, the margin of error in polling suggests that the state is still in toss-up territory.
Wisconsin
Known for its cheese production and Miller beer (since 1855), Wisconsin has ten electoral votes. Trump won the state in 2016 with only a 0.7% margin in the popular vote. Biden leads by over an average of 6% (in one poll by 17%) and is likely to take the state in 2020. Unlike in Pennsylvania, a few days before polling day, the Supreme Court ruled that the state’s decision to extend the election by six days could not be upheld and that only those ballots received by the deadline would be counted, as it is done in over 30 other states.
Read more: Who formally declares the winner of the US presidential election?
The last days of the campaign saw both candidates criss-crossing the country to garner support. On election night, all eyes will be on these swing states, with both sides matching polling data to electoral returns, and waiting for any last minute surprises. Given the underlying data, the election is now Biden’s to lose, and these battleground states will be critical to the outcome, the confirmation of which may take several days after the election.
November 17 Update: While some battleground states are dealing with recounts and legal issues surrounding the handling of ballots, there are not really any new odds surfacing for the 2020 Presidential Election. There are, however, some lines available for the remaining Georgia Senate Runoff taking place in early January. Of course the earlier you place your bet, the bigger the payout, but you do have right up until the vote on Jan. 5th, 2021.
In the United States, the outcome of the Presidential Election is determined by which candidate meets the minimum threshold of 270 electoral votes and then wins the majority of these votes. It is possible for a Presidential candidate to win the popular vote but lose the Presidency due to the electoral vote distribution. Because of this constant intrigue, multiple legitimate offshore sportsbooks offer odds related to electoral votes by state.
In the US, each state is worth a specified number of votes in the Electoral College. Naturally, the states with larger numbers of electoral votes are the prized destinations that each candidate attempts to win over, though the biggest states are typical party stalwarts (i.e. CA always going Democrat while Texas always goes Republican).
Here we take a look at each state and which candidate they are currently leaning towards, and we will also discuss key swing states in the 2020 Presidential election, also known as battleground states, and provide some links to monitoring these states as the election progresses. You can visit our page about the Vegas odds for 2020 state primary elections for more information about betting on state primaries.
We also include information on where you can legally place bets on the current Electoral College odds. This information will be helpful to you should you decide to participate in the various state-related betting lines available at any legal online sportsbook offering political wagering.
Where To Bet - Sportsbooks Offering Odds On Who Will Win The Electoral College Vote For Each State
| Site | Bonus | Rating/5 | USA | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% Max $250 | 4.5 | ||
| 2 | 50% Max $1,000 | 4.4 | ||
| 3 | 100% Max $1,000 | 4.4 | ||
| 3 | 75% Max $1,000 | 4.1 |
Current 2020 Electoral Odds By State
The following odds are all from BetOnline, which currently has lines up for all 50 states in the 2020 Presidential election. You can get the best odds - and the best payouts! - by making your picks early. Check back here frequently, as every state's updated lines will be posted as soon as they are released.
Note: The odds right now presume that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee and that Donald Trump will remain in office and be on the GOP general election ticket.
Alabama
- Republican -2500
- Democrat +1400
Alaska
- Republican -700
- Democrat +500
Arizona
- Democrat -130
- Republican +100 (EVEN)
Arkansas
- Republican -1000
- Democrat +600
California
- Democrat -1500
- Republican +1000
Colorado
- Democrat -900
- Republican +600
Connecticut
- Democrat -1300
- Republican +600
Delaware
- Democrat -1600
- Republican +1100
Florida
- Democrat -120
- Republican -110
Georgia
- Republican -220
- Democrat +180
Hawaii
- Democrat -2500
- Republican +1400
Idaho
- Republican -3300
- Democrat +1600
Illinois
- Democrat -1000
- Republican +700
Indiana
- Republican -900
- Democrat +600
Iowa
- Republican -260
- Democrat +200
Kansas
- Republican -1200
- Democrat +900
Kentucky
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +1200
Louisiana
- Republican -1600
- Democrat +1100
Maine
- Democrat -400
- Republican +300
Maryland
- Democrat -1500
- Republican +1000
Massachusetts
- Democrat -1600
- Republican +1100
Michigan
- Democrat -225
- Republican +185
Minnesota
- Democrat -180
- Republican +150
Mississippi
- Republican -1600
- Democrat +1100
Missouri
- Republican -900
- Democrat +600
Montana
- Republican -800
- Democrat +550
Nebraska
- Republican -1600
- Democrat +1100
Nevada
- Democrat -300
- Republican +240
New Hampshire
- Democrat -240
- Republican +190
New Jersey
- Democrat -1100
- Republican +800
New Mexico
- Democrat -700
- Republican +500
New York
- Democrat -1100
- Republican +800
North Carolina
- Republican -150
- Democrat +120
North Dakota
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +1200
Ohio
- Republican -215
- Democrat +175
Oklahoma
- Republican -2500
- Democrat +1400
Oregon
- Democrat -900
- Republican +600
Pennsylvania
- Democrat -165
- Republican +135
Rhode Island
- Democrat -1500
- Republican +1000
South Carolina
- Republican -1000
- Democrat +700
South Dakota
- Republican -2500
- Democrat +1400
Tennessee
- Republican -1500
- Democrat +1000
Texas
- Republican -450
- Democrat +325
Utah
- Republican -1000
- Democrat +700
Vermont
- Democrat -1500
- Republican +1000
Virginia
- Democrat -750
- Republican +550
Washington
- Democrat -1500
- Republican +1000
West Virginia
- Republican -2500
- Democrat +1400
Wisconsin
- Democrat -165
- Republican +135
Wyoming
- Republican -3300
- Democrat +1600
Alabama
- Republican -4000
- Democrat +1000
Alaska
- Republican -900
- Democrat +500
Arizona
- Democrat -180
- Republican +135
Arkansas
- Republican -1100
- Democrat +575
California
- Democrat -2000
- Republican +800
Colorado
- Democrat -850
- Republican +475
Connecticut
- Democrat -3000
- Republican +900
Delaware
- Democrat -3000
- Republican +900
Florida
- Republican -120
- Democrat -110
Georgia
- Republican -220
- Democrat +165
Hawaii
- Democrat -6000
- Republican +1200
Idaho
- Republican -4000
- Democrat +1000
Illinois
- Democrat -3000
- Republican +900
Indiana
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +800
Iowa
- Republican -250
- Democrat +185
Kansas
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +800
Kentucky
- Republican -3000
- Democrat +900
Louisiana
- Republican -1600
- Democrat +700
Maine
- Democrat -500
- Republican +330
Maryland
- Democrat -3300
- Republican +950
Massachusetts
- Democrat N/A
- Republican N/A
Michigan
- Democrat -250
- Republican +185
Minnesota
- Democrat -220
- Republican +165
Mississippi
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +800
Missouri
- Republican -1000
- Democrat +550
Montana
- Republican -1000
- Democrat +550
Nebraska
- Republican -3000
- Democrat +900
Nevada
- Democrat -500
- Republican +330
New Hampshire
Swing State Odds College Football
- Democrat -250
- Republican +185
New Jersey
- Democrat -1800
- Republican +725
New Mexico
- Democrat -1000
- Republican +550
New York
- Democrat -3000
- Republican +900
North Carolina
- Democrat -130
- Republican +100 (EVEN)
North Dakota
- Republican -3000
- Democrat +900
Ohio
- Republican -240
- Democrat +175
Oklahoma
- Republican -3000
- Democrat +900
Oregon
- Democrat -1200
- Republican +600
Pennsylvania
- Democrat -190
- Republican +145
Rhode Island
- Democrat -3000
- Republican +900
South Carolina
- Republican -1400
- Democrat +650
South Dakota
- Republican -4000
- Democrat +1000
Tennessee
- Republican -3000
- Democrat +900
Texas
- Republican -360
- Democrat +250
Utah
- Republican -1900
- Democrat +750
Vermont
- Democrat -6000
- Republican +1200
Virginia
- Democrat -900
- Republican +500
Washington
- Democrat -2000
- Republican +800
West Virginia
- Republican -4000
- Democrat +1000
Wisconsin
- Democrat -150
- Republican +115
Wyoming
- Republican -3000
- Democrat +900
Electoral College Predictions For 2020 Presidential Election
The leanings of each individual state can fluctuate right up through Election Day. However, there are some instances where a candidate has established a safe state for their party by obtaining a majority of the support from that region.
Below is a listing of those states that are considered ‘safe’ for each candidate and can be reasonably predicted to vote in a specific direction. We have also listed the toss-up states that could go either direction.
States That Voted For Trump In 2016
Trump secured support in the following states. We’ve broken down the list into a few categories showing the overarching strength of Republican support, which should give bettors some insight into how these states will vote in 2020.
Solid Trump States – Solid Republican States
- Alabama - 9 electoral votes
- Arkansas - 6 electoral votes
- Idaho - 4 electoral votes
- Louisiana - 8 electoral votes
- Kentucky - 8 electoral votes
- Mississippi - 6 electoral votes
- Nebraska - 4 electoral votes
- North Dakota - 3 electoral votes
- Oklahoma - 7 electoral votes
- West Virginia - 5 electoral votes
- Wyoming - 3 electoral votes
Swing State Odds Calculator
States Likely To Vote Trump – States Likely To Vote Republican
- Alaska - 3 electoral votes
- Indiana - 11 electoral votes
- Kansas - 6 electoral votes
- Missouri - 10 electoral votes
- Montana - 3 electoral votes
- Nebraska - 1 electoral vote
- South Dakota - 3 electoral votes
- Tennessee - 11 electoral votes
- Texas - 38 electoral votes
- Utah - 6 electoral votes
States Leaning Trump – States Leaning Republican
- South Carolina with 9 electoral votes
States That Voted For Hillary In 2016
The following states were predicted to be in the Clinton camp for the 2016 Presidential election, which can indicate a tendency to vote Democrat in 2020. However, given Trump's polarizing nature and populist support, one or more of these DNC strongholds could teeter over to the other side come the November general.
Solid Democrat States
- California - 55 electoral votes
- DC - 3 electoral votes
- Hawaii - 4 electoral votes
- Massachusetts - 11 electoral votes
- Maryland - 10 electoral votes
- New York - 29 electoral votes
- Vermont - 3 electoral votes
States Likely To Vote Democrat
- Delaware - 3 electoral votes
- Illinois - 20 electoral votes
- New Jersey - 14 electoral votes
- Rhode Island - 4 electoral votes
- Washington State - 12 electoral votes
States Leaning Towards Voting Democrat
- Connecticut - 7 electoral votes
- Maine - 1 electoral vote
- Oregon - 7 electoral votes
- Minnesota - 10 electoral votes
- Wisconsin - 10 electoral votes
Toss Up States In The 2016 Presidential Election
These states were undecided before the 2016 election, with neither candidate securing the majority of support. Several of these states were considered swing states or battleground states, and both candidates campaigned heavily in them in the last days before the Big Vote. Below you will find information specifically discussing potential 2020 Presidential election swing states.
- Arizona - 11 electoral votes
- Colorado - 9 electoral votes
- Florida - 29 electoral votes
- Georgia - 16 electoral votes
- Iowa - 6 electoral votes
- Maine - 3 electoral votes
- Michigan - 16 electoral votes
- New Hampshire - 4 electoral votes
- New Mexico - 5 electoral votes
- Nevada - 6 electoral votes
- North Carolina - 15 electoral votes
- Ohio - 18 electoral votes
- Pennsylvania - 20 electoral votes
- Virginia - 13 electoral votes
What Are The Swing States For the 2020 Presidential Election?
Swing states, battleground states, and toss ups - Regardless of what we call them, they often determine the results of the Presidential election. No candidate or political party enjoys overwhelming support in these regions, and so they get a lot of attention as the general election nears.
11 regions have been designated as the 2020 swing states in the Presidential election, with three of these states considered to be ‘key’ battleground states. Securing support in these is critical for all Presidential candidates.
Swing states Florida and Ohio have determined the results of the race in recent election cycles, and they are always a crown jewel in the Electoral College process. Following is a list of the designated swing states for 2020, with the three key battleground states listed first.
You may notice that all of the swing states are also listed on the list of toss up states with the exception of Wisconsin. Wisconsin has recently been moved to ‘leaning Democrat’ status, but the Democrat lead there is not significant enough to remove the state from still being considered a swing state.
- Florida
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
- New Hampshire
- Minnesota
- Iowa
- Michigan
- Nevada
- Colorado
- North Carolina
Vegas Odds On State Electoral Votes
Betting on which direction a state will vote has become a part of the political betting lines available on the 2020 presidential election. Some sportsbooks provide odds on every single state, while others may only include toss up or swing states. This makes sense as there really isn’t much risk in predicting that a solid red or blue state will vote in their typical fashion.
Some of the state-related wagering options you’ll find at our recommended sportsbooks offering political betting lines are things like what percentage of total states will be won by each party, which candidate or party will receive the popular vote in a given state, and which candidate or party will receive the electoral vote in a given state.