Vegas Election Odds for President Donald Trump 2024 45th President of the United States. Trump defied all Vegas election odds in 2016 when he became the 45 th president of the United States of America. He outlasted a strong field of 11 Republican Party candidates and then toppled Hillary Clinton in the general election. Vegas betting odds suggest Trump will declare his 2024 reelection bid at CPAC on Sunday. The former president is expected to use his speech to talk about the future of the Republican Party.
Will America soon have its first Shawshank President? Will Donald Trump find himself fending off riots in the Attica mess hall? Tweetless and at the mercy of 2,000 “angry Democrat” inmates?
A number of recent developments show that one cannot rule it out. Things took a decidedly serious turn last week when New York prosecutors told a federal judge that there were “public reports of possibly extensive and protracted criminal conduct at the Trump Organization.” They added that they that they may also be investigating possible crimes involving bank and insurance fraud, according to the New York Times, which also reported that Deutsche Bank has been complying with a Manhattan District Attorney’s Office subpoena for months, turning over detailed financial records in connection with some $2 billion the bank has lent Trump.
“The odds of Trump running in 2024 and not representing the Republican party are 4 to 1, which equates to just a 20% chance.” More than a dozen CPAC attendees interviewed by the Wall Street Journal have already said they would back Trump if he were to run again in 2024. The oddsmakers have updated odds on those states and as of Friday morning, the oddsmakers believe the writing is on the wall for Joe Biden. Biden is favored in three of the four states left standing, while Trump is expected to take North Carolina.
The news comes on the heels of a Supreme Court ruling last month that declared the president was not immune from state criminal investigations, therefore clearing the way for a New York grand jury to subpoena Trump’s financial records, an effort spearheaded by Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance Jr.
For Trump, the stakes couldn’t be higher once he leaves office: He could go from the White House to the Big House.
So, I asked some experts the likelihood that the president could really wind up in a New York prison. “Absolutely yes, if we are a nation of equal justice and Trump is convicted of serious felonies,” Trump biographer David Cay Johnston told me. But he quickly added, “Whether it happens is entirely unpredictable.”
Still, New York has a real chance at putting Trump behind bars. The state has jurisdiction over most of his properties and operations relating to his 2016 presidential campaign. Crucially, states also are not subject the U.S. Department of Justice’s rule that a sitting president may not be prosecuted for federal crimes. Trump, therefore, is stripped of his four-year kryptonite shield if he is re-elected. A state indictment of a sitting president, though historically unprecedented, is entirely possible. His DOJ-Roy Cohn, Bill Barr, is constitutionally powerless to intervene.
That should make Trump uneasy, especially as New York Attorney General Letitia James ramps up her own investigations. “We will use every area of the law to investigate President Trump and his business transactions and that of his family,” she declared after taking office two years ago.
At the same time, Vance’s subpoena appears to go beyond obtaining financial records relating to alleged pre-election hush money payments to silence two women, Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal. Both of the women claim to have had affairs with Trump. Information gleaned from the DA’s inquiry could expose tax cheating and money laundering as well as bank and insurance fraud, which are felonies.
Johnston told me he’s confident that Vance already has Trump’s New York tax filings. Even though the IRS and state tax authorities share tax information on citizens and business entities, it’s unclear whether he also has the president’s federal returns. The DA is seeking Trump’s financial records from his accounting firm Mazars USA in addition to Deutsche Bank—to compare that data with what he already possesses, looking for corroborating information, according to Johnston.
“Trump has a well-documented history as a tax cheat and for hiding business records,” Johnston said. “This is garden variety tax fraud, a straight-up tax scam that could easily be a felony.”
That doesn’t necessarily mean he will go to jail. More often than not, tax cheats get away with heavy fines in lieu of prison sentences, Johnston said. Moreover, Trump, like many very wealthy people, will continue to throw monkey wrenches into the judicial system with appeal after appeal and other rope-a-dope tactics until revenue agencies finally become open to a low-punitive settlement.
This is echoed by Duncan Levin, formerly a senior staff member under District Attorney Vance and an ex-assistant U.S. attorney. Whether the president would actually be sentenced to prison is a political call, Levin said. “Can you imagine an ex-U.S. president actually being sent to prison?” he told me. “It’s inconceivable that Trump didn’t know about the hush money payments. But it’s highly unlikely that he’d be arrested on misdemeanor charges. They would have to be very serious felonies.” False statements to financial institutions would count.
More likely, he added, the DA may be zeroing in at this point on Trump’s inner circle. “Michael Cohen didn’t act alone. He collaborated with people within the Trump organization to cover up the hush payments just before the election,” Levin said. Look, at least initially, for indictments of Trump underlings.
The good news, though, is that Vance will not put off his investigation and possible indictments until after the November election. DA’s proceed on cases irrespective of extraneous events, including a general election, Levin said.
But the hope of many that Trump could finally be held accountable for his crimes may be remote. At most, one can imagine him behind bars at a white-collar correctional facility like that of his former lawyer Michael Cohen, as opposed to hard time at a penitentiary like Attica. For now, though, time will tell. The Americans who want to see justice carried out are more likely to watch this shamed crook-in-chief spending his remaining years out of office consumed in exhausting and financially draining legal battles, fully exposed for the criminal he’s always been.
Vegas is betting on Former President Donald Trump announcing his 2024 election bid during his highly-anticipated speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando, Florida, on Sunday, according to Fortune.
Vegas Odds Trump Election
The former president will be making his first public appearance since leaving the White House last month.
He is expected to use the speech to talk about the future of the Republican Party and the conservative moment and criticize President Joe Biden’s efforts to undo his immigration policies, Reuters reported last week.
But the big question remains whether Trump will use his time on stage to announce his run for president in the 2024 election.
As of Friday morning, those odds were 4 to 5, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com. This suggests that 55.6% implied the probability that Trump would put his name on the list.
“The betting markets seem confident that Trump will declare his candidacy during his speech, but not so much that he’ll be doing so as a member of a party that isn’t the GOP,” said a US-Bookies spokesperson according to Fortune. “The odds of Trump running in 2024 and not representing the Republican party are 4 to 1, which equates to just a 20% chance.”
Vegas Odds Trump Winning Election
More than a dozen CPAC attendees interviewed by the Wall Street Journal have already said they would back Trump if he were to run again in 2024.
A Politico-Morning Consult poll published three days after Trump’s acquittal in his second impeachment trial found that 54% of Republican voters would back Trump in the primary.
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