Biden's odds of winning the 2020 US election have moved in the opposite way; on Tuesday, his odds sat at 10-17, which implied he had a 63 percent chance of winning the November election. US election 2020 Voters in America will decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump remains in the White House for another four years. The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party. Joe Biden is now the favourite to win the presidency Credit: Reuters The former Democratic vice president is once again the favourite to take the White House at 1/20 by SkyBet after a rollercoaster. 8, 2020: Joe Biden opened as the +675 second-favorite to win the 2024 election, trailing his Vice President, Kamala Harris (+425). 2024 Election Odds Odds as of March 1st, 2021. 2024 Presidential Odds – Longshots.
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Believe it or not, we're now 100 days and 15 hours from the 2020 election. As we enter the final stretch of the campaign, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden continues to hold an advantage over President Donald Trump in the polls.
A look at history reveals that while Biden's clearly the favorite, his victory is not assured in an unprecedented election.
1. This is the rare election not about the economy
A Fox News poll earlier this month revealed that 29% of voters said coronavirus/Covid-19 was the most important issue facing the country. That was nearly double the 15% who said the economy.
Going back over time, there have only been a select number of modern elections not about the economy. In each of those elections, the candidate trusted most on this non-economic issue went on to win.
Indeed, vote choice is currently strongly correlated with whether voters think Biden or Trump can better handle coronavirus.
The fact that coronavirus is playing such a big role in voters' perceptions of Biden, Trump and the presidential race means that for now Trump's in big trouble. But it also means that if the coronavirus picture changes for the better by November, Trump could come back.
2. That said, Trump's approval rating is really bad
Right now, Trump has approximately a 40% approval rating and a 55% disapproval rating. This makes for a net approval rating of -15 points.
Since 1940, no president has ever won another term in the White House with such a poor net approval rating at this point. The closest was Harry Truman in 1948, whose approval rating was nearly 10 points better at -6 points.
Video: Why Biden is polling better than Clinton against Trump (CNN)
As a group, the presidents (Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush) who were not elected to a second term look eerily similar to Trump. Their average net approval rating stood at -13 points.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2020 Election Predictions
Trump's net approval rating isn't anywhere close to the average president who has earned another term, +23 points.
3. A Trump win is still within the margin of error
Biden is up by anywhere from eight points (including all polls) to 12 points (just live interview polls) in the national average, depending how you compute it. That's a sizable edge.
If you look at the polling 100 days out from each election involving an incumbent since 1940, the average difference between the polls at this point and the result has been 10 points. If you look at the elections (seven) where we were not in-between conventions at this point, that difference drops to six points.
Trump would need an average to above average error to win the national vote. He would also need that error to go in his direction and not actually benefit Biden. That's unlikely to occur.
Still, he can take some hope from Truman in 1948, who was down by about the same in the national polls right now. Truman would go on to win by five points.
4. Biden's advantage in the electoral college is clear
If you were to average the polls in every state, Biden leads in states containing 352 electoral votes to Trump's 186. He's additionally within a point in Georgia (16 electoral votes) and Texas (38 electoral votes).
It's quite conceivable that Biden would win over 400 electoral votes, if the election were held today.
Perhaps as importantly, there is little sign that the electoral college will doom him like it doomed Hillary Clinton in 2016. His average lead in key states like Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin look quite similar to his advantage nationally.
5. This election looks nothing like 2016
Speaking of the 2016 election, Biden's in a much better position than Clinton. Consider this fact: Clinton was hitting her apex in the national polls at this very moment. She had just wrapped up a successful Democratic National Convention, and she held an average 44% to 38% lead in two live interview polls completed 100 days from the election.
Biden's at 52% to Trump's 40% in the live interview national polls taken in July. That is, he's over 50%, unlike Clinton, and has basically double the lead Clinton was holding after her convention.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2020 Election Poll
Biden continues to have a better favorable rating and is viewed as far more honest than Clinton.
Simply put, you'd much rather be Biden than Trump. But with some time to go, there's still time for a Trump comeback.
- Biden's odds lead well ahead of President Trump
- The second presidential debate will be held Thursday night in Nashville
- National polling favors Biden, but Trump closing gap at some media outlets
According to the U.S. Election Project, nearly 40 million Americans have voted early. To put that in perspective, those 40-million-or-so votes account for 28.8% of the TOTAL votes counted in the entire 2016 presidential election. If we wanted to read into those proverbial tea leaves, a rush to vote early has historically not favored the incumbent. A rush to vote early indicate an eagerness for change and/or to avoid the chaos and long lines that await on election day, November 3. So, it should come as no surprise that Joe Biden’s and President Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2020 election remain relatively unchanged over the past few days. At Bovada, Biden’s odds are -165, or an implied probability of 62.26%, while President Trump’s odds are +125.
| 2020 U.S. Election Betting Odds | Online Sportsbook (10/21/20) | Online Sportsbook (10/14/20) |
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Bovada | BetOnline |
| Donald Trump | +125 (Last week +170) | N/A (Last week +180) |
| Joe Biden | -165 (Last week -200) | N/A (Last week -226) |
2020 U.S. Election Odds: Second Presidential Debate Props
Who Is Favored To Win The 2020 Election Debate
The first presidential debate was chaos. The second debate was cancelled. The third debate, to be held tomorrow night, October 22, at 9 p.m. ET, will feature a mute button. It will also be hosted by Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee with NBC News’ Kristen Welker acting as moderator. Studies have shown, she’ll have her hands full keeping President Trump and Joe Biden on topic and focused.
Our good friends at Bovada have cooked up some entertaining presidential debate prop bet odds for tomorrow night’s festivities. Some of the more amusing props on the board are:
- What will Trump and Biden say first?
- Will the first or second presidential debate have better ratings?
- Whose microphone will be muted first?
- Will either candidate mention Twitter during the debate?
All the latest prop bet odds can be found at Bovada.
2020 U.S. Election Odds: Poll Positions
Who Is Going To Win The 2020 Election Nz
Two weeks ago, Biden had a 12-point lead in Rasmussen Report’s White House Watch weekly poll. As of October 21, President Trump has trimmed his challenger’s lead to just 3 points, 49-46. The conservative-leading polling outlet also released Trump’s daily approval index rating, which was up to negative-5 (-5), which is the highest its been since September 25.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2020 Us Presidential Election
Biden’s national polling lead remains double digits at FiveThirtyEight.
One area that will be of great interest to those wagering on the 2020 presidential race are the results of battleground states. For those unfamiliar, battleground states are those that a) offer a large number of electoral votes 2) are typically 50/50 split between Democratic and Republican voters. While Biden holds a lead in CNBC/Change Research’s poll of the top six swing states, the +/- margin of error keeps Trump’s changes well within range.
- Arizona: Biden leads 51-45
- Florida: Biden leads 50-45
- Michigan: Biden leads 51-44
- North Carolina: Biden leads 50-47
- Pennsylvania: Biden leads 49-47
- Wisconsin: Biden leads 52-45
Who Is Favored To Win The 2020 Election Candidates
In the lead up to November 3, Gamble Online will publish weekly 2020 U.S. election betting coverage with the latest polling news and updated betting odds. If you’re interested in learning more about how to bet on the 2020 United States election or are interested in learning more about the online sportsbooks that offer political odds and unique prop bets, be sure to check out our new expert 2020 election guide.